There is no online gambling market more volatile, perhaps in the history of online poker, than the one that currently exists in the United States. The market has changed drastically in the last year and with regulated poker expected to come to Nevada and possibly other states by the end of the year, 2012 is likely to be another eventful year for U.S. players. In this edition of our Handicapping Series, which follows our previous discussion on Full Tilt Poker, Pokeraddict and I go over various scenarios revolving around the "Status Quo" U.S. market. Next edition will focus on how we see the U.S. "Regulated" market. Again, as is the case with our previous posts, please don't take any of these topics too seriously (or bet on the lines!). Hopefully, our discussion can result in some good food for thought for anybody reading. Odds of Merge being overtaken as top U.S. room in 2012 (with a full status quo market)? Pokeraddict's line: +800 Gonzo: +1000 Pokeraddict: I do not think there is any room in a position to overtake Merge Gaming. With more than double the traffic of their closest U.S. friendly competitor, no site can keep up. As long as Merge Gaming does not leave the U.S. market, and can offer cashouts within 2 months, I feel they are the clear winner. Gonzo: Agree 100%. Even with some of the negatives at Merge right now (lackadaisical action on certain issues, slow payment processing) Merge Gaming is doing a fair amount of things right. The next two biggest sites, Bovada and Cake, have negatives that some players find as deal breakers (Cake Poker with even slower cashout times and Bovada with their anti-reg philosophy) that are enough of an issue that I don't see them making a strong run. The one exception I see is Winning Poker because they seem to really *want* to be #1, but at 15% of Merge's size, they have a long road to the top. By the way, this question assumes that Merge Gaming is not forced out of the U.S. Odds of Bovada dumping Anoymous tables? Gonzo: +600 Pokeraddict: +800 Gonzo: The recreational player model seems to be an obsession for poker rooms that have it implemented. The rooms that have these systems feel it is the only way to the long term health of a poker room. Call it dedication or stubbornness, this mindset will not be changing any time soon. Pokeraddict: Bodog seems stuck in their ways, regardless of how they affect players or their traffic. They firmly believe that anonymous tables are the way to go to protect their sports and casino whales. While I disagree and see several issues with that, I respect their right to run their business as they see fit. I think it will take a major security scandal to break the anonymous tables. Odds of Bovada.lv Leaving the U.S. market? Pokeraddict: +350 Gonzo: +300 Pokeraddict: I feel that Bovada is here for the long haul. As we learned today, they are being cautious by leaving high risk states. As long as their processing is not completely strangled, I feel they are in the U.S. to stay. I also feel that if they should leave the market, players funds would be at little risk. Gonzo: I also think the state-by-state approach is an indication they don't plan on leaving any time soon. The Winning Poker Network illustrated that a poker room can operate after a domain name seizure so I don't see how Bovada will be any different, especially given that they have operated a sportsbook when the legality was under little question. Odds of network/room leaving the U.S. without government action during 2012 (Merge, Cake are the only ones not to have had a major incident. Winning Poker and Bodog (Bovada) have but have continued to operate after seizures): Gonzo: +200 Pokeraddict: EV Gonzo: This question is basically "will Cake or Merge Gaming leave without obvious government action." I think Merge Gaming is more likely due to their LGA license and being relatively proactive in the past (bans in 6 or 7 states where legality is more in question, temporary suspension of all new sign-ups). Pokeraddict: I think it is a coin toss. Processing is going to get harder and harder. Some rooms appear to be stressed harder than others. Any more processor failures or busts could be catastrophic to some of these rooms. Odds of there being any new major new U.S. rooms pop up (non regulated)? Pokeraddict: +5000 Gonzo: +1000 Pokeraddict: No poker room that goes to the trouble of creating a software is going to take a chance in this market. Some feel that the U.S. is on the edge of regulation. Entering the U.S. market now would be suicide for any company looking to be in the U.S. long term. I doubt players would trust any new site enough to make it a major room. Gonzo: Well said. Any NEW U.S. room NOT popping up on a major network needs to be met with extreme skepticism. Odds of payment processing improving during the year? Gonzo: +500 Pokeraddict: +200 Gonzo: I think it's very likely that payment processing for U.S. rooms will continue to be under extreme pressure, however, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that things will get much worse from where things are now. I don't see how it can get much better, however. Pokeraddict: There are a few rooms that are having few problems with cashouts. Considering bank wires appear to be near impossible, I think that could improve in the future. I feel they can only get better for a few rooms which is why I do not see it as being as big of an underdog as Gonzo does. Odds of Everleaf Gaming paying players by the start of the World Series of Poker? Pokeraddict: +700 Gonzo: +500 Pokeraddict: I have a bad feeling about whether Everleaf Gaming will ever pay U.S. players. At the very least, 2.5 months from now is very short term. Gonzo: I share your pessimism, unfortunately, and don't see myself getting my $200 any time soon. With that said, I don't think their situation fits into any specific previous scenario. They haven't lost a huge % of their traffic like Absolute Poker/UB (only 25% or so) and can't be fairly compared to PokerStars, which clearly had a ton of cash to pay out players very quickly. Hopefully, there is a light at the end of the tunnel before the World Series. Otherwise this is going to start to feel a lot like Full Tilt. Odds of the following rooms leaving the U.S. market in the hypothetical scenario of their domains's being seized: Gonzo: Merge Gaming +100, Bodog (already happened), Cake Poker +200, Winning Poker (already happened) Pokeraddict: Merge Gaming +100, Bodog (already happened), Cake Poker +300, Winning Poker (already happened) Gonzo: Bodog and Winning Poker have been two victims of domain seizures and have continued to provide online poker to players, while Everleaf Gaming left after a payment processing seizure and a cease and desist. Merge Gaming is the more likely of the two to leave after this hypothetical scenario given their Malta license (which apparently played a role in Everleaf leaving). I could see Merge going back to Kahnawake if they wanted to stay and then just leave the states where there are laws against online poker or states that are regulated. Cake would be more likely to stay because A) they don't have a Malta license and B) they would presumably get hit much harder than Merge Gaming or Everleaf if the U.S. market were to be cut off. Pokeraddict: I see things exactly as Gonzo does. We are in a situation where I think Merge could feel some heat in the near future. They are processing many more times the payouts than Cake Poker in the U.S. so I feel they are more likely to be the target. Merge Gaming processes most of the payouts on their network while Cake Poker has many skins that process their own payments. In addition to this, Merge Gaming is triple the size. As for the rooms that have already run into trouble in the US, I feel that they are here to stay. If getting indicted and losing their domains did not affect them, nothing will. Odds the top U.S. rooms (Merge, Cake and Bovada) stop accepting U.S. players from states where there is regulation? Pokeraddict: Merge -500 Cake -200 Bovada -200 Gonzo: Merge Gaming -300, Cake Poker -200, Bodog +200, True Poker +100 Pokeraddict: I seriously doubt all of the U.S. friendly rooms will attempt to compete in Nevada or any other state where online poker becomes regulated. Few players will want to play there due to the ease of playing on regulated sites, and the penalties would be harsh for the rooms. There is little reward based on the risk. I believe there is little chance Merge gaming stays. Cake Poker and Bovada would be more likely to hang out in the markets in my opinion. Gonzo: Unless regulation is incredibly restrictive or unattractive (ridiculously high rake, few games in the case of intrastate poker in low populated states) playing on non-regulated sites in regulated states is likely to be unappealing. I think a couple poker rooms may make statements by leaving the regulated states while a couple others may continue to offer their games to players that prefer them for one reason or another. In general, regulation itself will effectively do most of the work with more attractive sites to play. Thanks for reading this edition of our Handicapping Series. Stay tuned for the next edition when we will be discussing and handicapping the regulated U.S. market.
Last week, Bovada, the US-facing Bodog Network brand, banned players from the state of Maryland and put heavy restrictions on players from another three states (no new accounts, no new deposits). With the move, Bovada joined all other major U.S. facing sites in banning players from at least one state in the U.S. Despite a perception by some of online poker rooms operating without any regard of the law, many have a history of banning players from states where the legal environment is more difficult. PokerStars and Full Tilt, for instance, both barred players in Washington State after the State Supreme Court upheld a ban on online poker in the fall of 2010. Two years earlier, many U.S. facing poker rooms left Kentucky when the state attempted to seize domain names of 141 top online poker rooms. In a recent example of a poker room banning players in a specific state, Merge Gaming placed restrictions on new sign-ups from four states and the District of Columbia one month after Black Friday. This was done a couple weeks prior to placing a temporary ban on ALL new U.S. sign-ups, which stayed in place until October of 2011. The ban on new sign-ups in seven states and territories remains in place. As stated, now that Bovada has effectively banned players from four states, every major online poker room bans players from certain states. In a casualty of the Bovada developments, new players from Washington State currently have no significant online poker options due to the very harsh laws which actually make it a felony to play online poker in the state (with the same potential penalties as rape). BetOnline and YouWager, which are poker rooms tied sportsbooks, are the only options to players in these states. At least it's a relatively short drive to Canada. States such as Maryland and New York do not share the same legal penalties as Washington, but because law enforcement has been heavily involved in those states, they have been added to many site's ban lists. Below is a list of banned states of U.S. facing rooms current as of March 16th, 2012. This information can also be found on the individual PAS room reviews of each poker site.
The Winning Poker Network has announced the largest guaranteed tournament for a U.S. room since the events of April 15th, 2011, a $250,000 guaranteed tournament to be held on April 15th, 2012. Dubbed the Liberty Weekend $250,000, the name of the event is an obvious play on one of the darkest days in history for U.S. poker players, Black Friday, which occurred one year to the date of this tournament. Poker rooms on the Winning Poker Network offering this large tournament include Americas Cardroom and True Poker. Players are able to buy-in directly to the Liberty $250,000 for $215 or via satellites for as little as $1. Players are able to rebuy during the late registrations period. On April 13th, a smaller $36+$3 buy-in tournament will be held which will guarantee 250 seats to the April 15th final. The network has been no stranger to larger tournament guarantees over the last few months, having gradually increased their largest tournaments each month. In December, their featured a $50,000 guaranteed prize pool, and then increased it to $75,000 in January and $100,000 in February, which was the largest on the network before the $250,000 Liberty Weekend Tournament was announced. Other U.S. facing sites have increased the prize pools over the last year, but not at the rate Winning Poker has over the last few months. The Merge Gaming Network increased their Sunday $50,000 to $100,000, while Merge Gaming’s Poker Maximus is featuring guaranteed prize pools up to $200,000. Bovada has continued $100,000 weekly tournaments and is hosting a $250,000 Guaranteed for the main event of the Black Diamond Poker Open running on April 1st. Winning Poker is currently the fourth largest U.S. facing site. Despite having their domain seized in the “Blue Money” seizures -- approximately one month after Black Friday – the network has maintained the fastest cashout times for U.S. players.
As some of you may know, each month I go through each of our partner rooms and post the most significant non-exclusive promotions of the month. Today, I thought I would share my subjective analysis of the most interesting promotions on the list -- my Top 7 -- running during February. 1) WPT/Party Poker Card Rush During February, Party Poker and WPT Poker bring back the popular Card Rush. For each 15 Party Points a player earns they will receive a game piece that will reveal a guaranteed prize of a minimum of 10 Party Points up to a grand prize of $5,000. Card Rush Race points will also be earned towards a leaderboard that will pay additional cash prizes of $50 to $9,000 to the top 200 players. Party Poker will also scatter $50 spots to players finishing 220 through 2,000. Party Poker will be awarding up to 1.8 million cards during the length of this promotion. Undoubtedly, many of these cards will be Party Points and freeroll entries but it's still a great extra perks that grinders should appreciate. 2) Carbon Poker/Aced/Black Chip Poker $25,000 Bankroll Booster Freerolls Carbon Poker, Aced and Black Chip Poker will be running numerous daily qualifiers to the $25,000 Bankroll Booster Freeroll to be held on February 26th at 2 PM ET. There is no direct way to get into the tournament so players must enter either three-times-daily Freeroll Qualifiers (at 13:30, 17:30 or 21:30) or via VIP Points Earned Qualifiers. The VIP Points Qualifiers are run nine times daily. To qualify for these tournaments, players must earn a designated number of VIP Points the previous day and/or the current day up to the time of the tournament. I'm estimating an overlay of about $10 per player in the final. 3) Minted Poker $1 Max Rake Minted Poker and other sites on the Everleaf Network have extended $1 Max rake caps on all tables through February. These tables should be attracting more players than they are due to the fact they are not subject to the large 5 euro max rake and the winning limits that players must undergo at the euro tables. This would be the top promotion in online poker if there was more traffic on these tables. 4) Betsafe $100,000 Points Races Betsafe offers their lucrative Points Race every month so this promotion isn't any more special than previous months. I like this promotion not only for the total size of the prize pool -- which is divided into two promo periods each month -- but the overall value to players. Betsafe also sweetens the pot by providing a $6,000 freeroll to all players that finish in the top 100 of Race 1 or 2. 5) True Poker/Americas Cardroom You really wouldn't think that a small network such as Winning Poker would be able to offer such large promotions, but during February they have actually increased their monthly race promotions to $100,000. $60,000 of the prize pool is awarded to the top FPP Point earners during the month and another $40,000 will be given away during weekend "Sprints," $10k each weekend. Note that the Sprints are only available to ring game players while the $60k "Marathon" is offered to both ring game and tournament players and actually awards bonus points for participation in top tournaments. 6) Boss Magic Hands For one day only on February 14th, the Boss Network (Poker Heaven, Fortune Poker, Interpoker) are awarding cash prizes to players that hit various Valentine's Day themed hands. I've always loved these types of promotions, especially ones that are relatively easy to hit like this one. Players receive €25 for a Heart Flush, €25 when losing 3 hands with K and Q of hearts and €250 when winning a hand with Straight Flush of Hearts. Players must submit a Magic Hand to claim via the Player Zone within 72 hours of hitting the hand. Note that both hole cards must be used and other rules apply. 7) Mansion Poker On Target! I'm also a big fan of promotions that guarantee a prize when a certain amount of play is achieved and that is exactly what Mansion is offering during February with their "On Target" promotion. Each week during the month, players can enter On Target via a no-play tournament from the lobby. Players that hit a raked hand target during the week will receive a cash reward and a $50 pending bonus. Prizes start at $5 and a $50 bonus for reaching 200 raked hands. Not bad, especially for grinders and when combining the promotion on top of the other many Mansion promotions. There you have it- my personal favorite standard online poker promotions for the month of February. If you a PAS publisher, be sure to also check out over $300,000 in exclusive promotions during the month of February. Good luck and happy marketing!
Only two weeks after a $1 million Bad Beat Jackpot was hit on the Merge Gaming Network, Boss Media's own Bad Beat Jackpot has eclipsed the $1 million mark (777,000 in euros). This is the first time the jackpot prize has reached $1 million since a record $1.8 million prize went off last July. In order to eligible for a Bad Beat Jackpot hand, a player must be seated at specially designated Bad Beat Jackpot No Limit and Fixed Limit tables. To trigger a jackpot prize a player must lose with Quad Tens, a relatively difficult jackpot to hit compared to bad beat jackpots on other sites, which is part of the reason the network has had two $1 million dollar jackpots six months apart from each. Jackpots that reach such high levels are of particular interest to recreational and value-minded players alike. Recreational player tend to gravitate towards the games of hoping to grab that big score, much in the way lottery sales go up for big prizes. What many value-minded players realize, which escapes certain recreational players, is that the value of playing these tables has a positive expectation when they reach into the hundreds of thousands of dollars, albeit with very high variance. With that in mind and the fact everyone likes the thought of a big score, consider promoting this Bad Beat Jackpot prize in your February marketing efforts. Let's take a look at some of the internet's largest current Bad Beat Jackpots: Boss Media: $1,011,050 (Quad Tens) Winning Poker: $520,970 (Quad Sevens) Microgaming: $421,000 (Quad Eights) Merge Gaming: $104,000 (Quad Sevens) Party Poker: $101,605 (Quad Eights)
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