Make no mistake about it: 2012 is looking to be a big year. Between regulatory changes -- most notably in part of Europe and the United States -- and a hopeful resolution in Full Tilt saga this year there will be plenty of new stories to follow. The drama of 2011 and Black Friday is still relatively fresh in our minds, but it's now clear that real change is on the horizon, possibly making 2012 the year when online poker officially moves into a new age (which we think will be an overall positive given the major difficulties of 2011).

As a result of these truly interesting and exciting times, over the next few weeks Pokeraddict and I will be expanding our Full Tilt prop bet scenarios idea from last year to cover a variety of topics of interest to players, affiliates and industry observers. We really enjoyed putting our last post together and based on your feedback, many of you enjoyed reading it.

In this edition of our Handicapping Series, we'd like to revisit our original Full Tilt Poker scenarios post with discussion of some of same questions with a couple fresh topics.

As we mentioned in our previous post, we don't claim to be dug into the trenches on most of these issues, but we have spent a lot of time reading and thinking about the situation (Pokeraddict might be the only one on the planet that read the entire DOJ indictments and Nevada online regulations). We are not taking ourselves too seriously here but we hope that some of the topics and questions brought up will provoke thought that may even be helpful in your affiliate business or poker playing future.

So let's get on with it...

What are the odds that the GBT/Full Tilt deal will eventually come to a positive resolution (all players paid, games running again)?

Pokeraddict's line: +375 (3.75:1 against or 21% chance)
Gonzo: +200

Pokeraddict: There are too many variables that make me feel like there is only a small chance that FTP comes back this year, if they ever return. The latest issues with Chris Ferguson and the money that allegedly belonged to him that kept the company floating is just another problem plaguing the reorganization. Ferguson's attorney denies this news, but I feel there must at least be some truth to it. With as much money as GBT is willing to throw at this, I just cannot figure out why they do not just open their own poker room from scratch with the same marketing concept.

Gonzo: You're optimism sure hasn't been lost since the last time (sarcasm). I certainly think there is reason to doubt a deal coming to fruition. But remember that all parties are much better off if a deal gets done. Ferguson and Lederer will really be able to walk into a poker room again if a deal doesn't happen, Tapie will be a hero, players will get their money and DOJ could ease some bad blood (although most of that bad blood has turned to Full Tilt ownership over recent months).

Assuming it is still in line to happen, what is your projection on the o/u on when the games will be live? July 2012

Pokeraddict's line: December 31, 2012
Gonzo: August 2012

Gonzo: Last October I said that June 2012 would be the over/under. With the deal behind schedule at this point for that scenario to come to fruition, I'm moving things back to August. How ready is GBT to launch if major progress was made? Between the DOJ, the recent Chris Ferguson news and other hold-ups, it feels like a lot of red tape still needs to be cleared.

Pokeraddict: The reason I answer this is because I just do not nee anything happening. If something does happen, it will take most of this year to get things organized and reopened.

What is your projection on the number of real money players during peak times on the new Full Tilt one month after launching (o/u)?

Pokeraddict 1,200
Gonzo: 2,500

Pokeraddict: With no US players, and the lack of players that will be willing to deposit at first, I see Full Tilt being on the lower end of most player projections. What may help the situation is a strong prop program and the help of fresh online poker pros. There is the issue of previous Full Tilt pros not being involved that may hurt the marketability of the new brand. I know I predicted three times this number before, but it seems we are still too far from an actual reopening. The brand dies slowly with each passing day.

Gonzo: I agree and that is why my number has moved down by about half since last October. Still, they have a huge brand recognition and I'm sure many will forgive Full Tilt when they realize its not under old ownership. That combined with their highly acclaimed software makes me think its reasonable they will be the size of Merge one month after launching based on a September 2012 launch. As you said, things deteroriate with every passing day.

What are the odds Phil Ivey takes part in the 2012 WSOP Main Event?

Pokeraddict +100
Gonzo: +200

Gonzo: Phil Ivey is playing more live tournaments these days, including the Aussie Millions which he won last week. Ivey playing these events actually contributes to my relative optimism of a positive Full Tilt resolution. In regards to this question, I think these recent tournament appearances are enough to bring my line down from +350 last October to +200 now. However, I think it's one thing to play the Aussie Millions and another to play the most prestigious event in the world, where there will be a huge spotlight on him. I'm not sure the positives would outweigh the negatives for Mr. Ivey. If a Full Tilt resolution is well underway by the summer, the odds drastically improve.

Pokeraddict: Considering Ivey played the Aussie Millions, I feel he will play the 2012 WSOP this year after sitting out the series in 2011. The chances increase if Full Tilt actually looks like it is going to reopen.

What is a the o/u on when U.S. players will receive their money?

Pokeraddict: Never +200
Gonzo: April 2013

Pokeraddict: It is hard to book a "never" bet, but I see little hope here. The goal to reopen Full Tilt was the first quarter of 2012. Full Tilt is nowhere near being able to reopen. The DOJ is nowhere near setting up a refund process, and I am not convinced that it will ever happen. If there is a refund process, it will be long and tedious. If there is a refund, players may only get a fraction of their money.

Gonzo: First of all, my line assumes the August 2012 time frame for games going live. This time frame could be optimistic even with timeframe, because I don't really have a good read on how long the DOJ would take on their end to get players paid. You can be sure there would be intense pressure from players and player interests.

What are the odds of affiliates being paid during 2012?

Pokeraddict: +900
Gonzo: +800

Gonzo: I still think the odds of this happening are bleak, even worse than I projected last year. My guess is the extra cost of working with affiliates will be seen as too much of liability for GBT although the x factor is still that a new Full Tilt could need affiliates more than ever (which many of us think they would -- see below). Perhaps the motivation to get off to a good start with affiliates would be enough. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Pokeraddict:
The only way I see affiliates getting paid in full from the old Full Tilt Poker owners is if GBT is in dire need of affiliates. Otherwise, affiliates are at the bottom of the list of people waiting to get paid. Affiliates will never see a dime unless GBT gets so desperate for affiliates that they are willing to dig deep. Affiliates may see a percentage of what they are owed, but a full payment is doubtful. Affiliates have shown too often that they are willing to put up with too much from operators. Even if affiliates do not get paid, some of them will still promote the new Full Tilt Poker. This leaves little motivation for the new Full Tilt to pay up for the old Full Tilt.

What is the likelihood of the new Full Tilt working with affiliates after launch?

Pokeraddict: -300
Gonzo: +100

Pokeraddict: If Full Tilt Poker reopens, they will need affiliates more than ever. I project that Full Tilt Poker would drop some of the silly deductions and try to do anything that might help bring back affiliates. The problem will be that some affiliates will expect full reimbursement of commission owed from the previous Full Tilt Poker. I do not see that happening. Affiliates have been known to forgive though and I expect to see Full Tilt on many affiliate sites should they reopen.

Gonzo: Agreed. The number one "rally the troops" move would be to honor the commissions before they closed last summer. A more likely scenario would be for GBT to not honor those commissions (not sure you could blame them too much) but still work with affiliates in some capacity for the reasons mentioned. I think if this happened, for the most part affiliates would welcome Full Tilt with open arms.


So that is how Pokeraddict and I see the Full Tilt Poker situation with current public information. Because of developments late last year, I look at the situation somewhat more favorably while Pokeraddict essentially feels like a deal would have been done already if it was going to happen. We hope you enjoyed reading and please share any comments you have.

Stayed tuned for the next edition of our Handicapping Series where we will discuss the current U.S. market.


Disclaimer: Please note the opinions expressed in this blog post do not necessary reflect those of PAS management.