Will Full Tilt Poker ever come back? I get this question A LOT, as does my good friend and fellow PAS blogger, Pokeraddict. He and I recently pondered this question as we sat down together discussing some of the latest news centering around the embattled poker room. I'm generally an optimistic person and my view on the future of Full Tilt has always been rosier than most, including Pokeraddict. Unlike me, he has always been quite pessimistic and unhopeful about Full Tilt post-Black Friday. I guess that means up until now he's been more right -- but don't tell him I said that.

Whenever we have any sort of in-depth debate such as this, we almost immediately start throwing around probabilities around the discussion. Given Pokeraddict's recent post on what needs to happen for Full Tilt to return to operations under a new ownership, we naturally started to discuss the odds of various related scenarios happening. Many players, affiliates and industry observers have no doubt been thinking the same, so we thought we would share how we currently perceive the current situation. Take note that we have no insider information, so consider everything for what it is: two individuals who have been in the industry many years making educated guesses. You're welcome to do some prop betting on our predictions with friends, but we sure as hell aren't going to take any action (too high of variance!).

There's one more important thing to mention before we get started: Even though we are having a bit of fun with this, we realize the money that some players have tied up in Full Tilt is life changing and is no laughing matter. Fortunately, combined Pokeraddict and I have less $1000 tied up, but there are players out there with much more. With this post, we hope that we can be a bit informative and have a little fun, but we mean no offense whatsoever.

So let's get started...

What are the odds of the Bernard Tapie conditional deal going through?

PokerAddict's line: +600 (i.e. 6:1 against or 14.28% chance)
Gonzo: +300

Gonzo: PA, looks like your reputation as a pessimist won't be shot down today. As my line would indicate, it certainly faces many huge hurdles and issues before it can progress, but I do think that when push comes to shove most -- if not all -- of the parties involved want to see players paid, including the DOJ (as evidenced by a recent DOJ statement calling players "victims"). Tapie's past also worries me a bit and it would be a real shame if that plays a role in killing the deal. He does a history reviving struggling companies.

PokerAddict: I am just not sold on this whole thing. There are so many variables that are at issue. There are several lawsuits filed, there are a lot of owners that need to agree on compensation, there is the whole DOJ saga and much more. I feel reopening FTP will cost double what the balances are. If some of that comes from the owners that took the alleged illegal dividends then this deal is more likely to happen. The DOJ is such a wildcard here and I do not see them bending much.

If everything lines up with the current investor, when can we expect them to be operational (Over/Under)?

Pokeraddict: April 2012
Gonzo: June 2012

Pokeraddict: If FTP is not open by Gonzo's O/U I doubt they ever reopen. I would happily take the under there because if the deal closes it opens sooner, if it does not close it is a push. If their current goal is Jan 2012 and they are not open 3 months later I think it will be because they hit major issues they cannot overcome. The brand deteriorates every day it is closed. If it is closed a year it will be worthless in my opinion.

Gonzo: First off, I agree with you that if they aren't open by then -- or very least close to it -- they are likely done and we're probably looking at the dreaded liquidation scenario. I'd absolutely love for January 2012 to happen, but I just don't see there being any way as that's less than three months away. Assuming Tapin is our guy and it's doable, there is going to be a lot of mess to sort through. I appreciate him being optimistic but I would be very surprised and impressed if a smooth transition takes place much before next summer.

Looks like our average date of a Full Tilt return is May 2012 assuming everything goes well. If it happens on that date, how many players are on Full Tilt on average within a month?

Pokeraddict: 3,750
Gonzo: 3,000

Gonzo: Since when did you become the optimist? According to PokerScout, they had approximately 9,300 real money players on average in late June -- which of course was after Americans were kicked off -- so that is the number we are basing these projections on. I think we both agree that the amount of downtime is significantly going to hurt Full Tilt if/when they come back and it may take awhile for players to earn that trust back, even under new ownership. But players love the Full Tilt software and am I'm sure many will love to get their Rush Poker on. I think it's reasonable to think right now they would be a little smaller than Ongame if they were to come back in May 2012.

PokerAddict: I feel there would be some sort of requirement or incentive for players with money stuck to clear a bonus or give some action. Cashouts may not be functional immediately and I think their support is going to be a mess for weeks after they open with the avalanche of support and cashout requests. Players also may feel the need to "support" the room by generating rake to lower the overall liability. There are also some players that miss Rush Poker and genuinely feel that Full Tilt's software is second to none. Provided this does not take a year to reopen, I think there will be enough buzz, enough people with money already on Full Tilt and enough incentive to play to get some action.

Overall, what are the chances of players being paid 100% of their balances in some manner (new investors, DOJ repayment) before December 2012?

Pokeraddict: +450
Gonzo: +250

PokerAddict: I think December 2012 is too soon for the feds to pay anyone back. The reason being is that it would only be a few months after it would become obvious that FTP was not going to reopen. I am not too optimistic that the feds would pay players anyway but that is a completely different story. I think Gonzo is way too optimistic here.

Gonzo: This one was very rough for me and I definitely see where your numbers are coming from. When I was thinking about this question and others, I really went back and forth. Ultimately, my thinking is this: virtually everyone wants players to be paid. If the investor falls through, that greatly reduces their chances of being paid before the end of next year. However, the DOJ is the wildcard. They COULD pay players with seized funds or funds from the civil suit. However, if players are relying on the DOJ to be paid (i.e. the Tapie deal falls through), I think there is a very small chance this happens by the end of 2012, but could happen after when all the red tape has been cleared -- which could take years. The number here that I eventually came to is an attempt to reflect all of these factors.

Many people who are reading this are affiliates. What are the chances they ever get paid for pre June 2011 commissions?

Pokeraddict: +900
Gonzo: +600

Gonzo: I think we both agree that players will (and should) be the first in line for repayment. Affiliates seem like they get the short end of the stick in situations like this and I fear this case will be no different. If the DOJ is the one to repay players they almost certainly will not repay affiliates. The only hope is if the white knight investor deal comes through. If that happens, hopefully Tapie and co. will realize that they will need affiliates more than ever, unlike Full Tilt's attitude towards affiliates in recent years. By the way, I would have no problem whatsoever with affiliates choosing to promote Full Tilt after an ownership change.

PokerAddict: The new ownership is unlikely to feel they owe affiliates anything. The DOJ certainly is not going to pay affiliates anything. If affiliates get anything it will only be to attract affiliates into promoting Full Tilt Poker again. It really depends on how new management feels about the situation. Affiliates are so far down the list of creditors I just do not see them getting paid in full even in the best case scenario.

Lederer and Ferguson were recently added to civil charges. What are the odds they eventually face criminal charges as well?

Pokeraddict: +100
Gonzo: +100

PokerAddict: We agreed on something here. I have a feeling that the amount of money the feds are looking for is well beyond what they will find in the forfeited accounts and seized assets. When that becomes apparent, I expect criminal charges to be filed.

Gonzo: I'm not a lawyer, so I really don't have a good read on this. I was surprised that given Ferguson's and Lederer's involvement in Full Tilt that they weren't originally charged. The civil charges also surprised me but made sense given that players haven't been paid. So, I don't know- it either happens or it doesn't right?

A good indication of a favorable resolution -- does Phil Ivey play the 2012 WSOP?.

Pokeraddict: +700
Gonzo: +350

Gonzo: How great will it be to see players paid and Ivey back at the 2012 WSOP? If the Tapie deal goes through and players are paid before next summer, I think there is a very good chance of this happening, but there is also a chance Ivey will not want the attention either. There is virtually no chance this happens without a favorable resolution for players.

PokerAddict: Phil Ivey made a public spectacle about how he was going to sue Full Tilt Poker and sit out until all players were paid. It took months to come out that 98% of Full Tilt Poker's player balances were not available. I find it hard to believe Ivey was completely clueless to this. If players get paid I guess all may be forgiven but there are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. For example, did Ivey know his loans were coming from player balances? How much did he talk with the board about their actions? I am not completely convinced he will walk away from the civil and criminal sides of this either. If he ends up mixed up in the DOJ complaint then he will not play for sure.

Final Thoughts:

Gonzo: I still believe Full Tilt has significant brand value and I think we will be surprised how quickly all will be forgotten if a new guard comes in, cleans house and pays players. Unfortunately, this is a big "if." As far as players being paid, the recent DOJ comments referring to Full Tilt players as "victims" gives me a lot of optimism that we could eventually see a positive outcome out of this. Through this all, it still amazes me what led to all of this -- a view by the DOJ that a skill-based online game that millions of American enjoy and that most can handle responsibly is so evil and needs to be stopped, yet online horse wagering, fantasy sports that aren't far removed from the even-more-evil-than-poker sportsbetting, and other "skill games" are perfectly ok.

Pokeraddict: Just as with Cereus, it seems the more someone is owed, the more optimistic they are about the poker room emerging from the ashes. With how messed up the books were and how dishonest it appears the Full Tilt Poker board has been I just do not see this being an easy transaction. On top of this, I do not see the Department of Justice taking anything out of this deal just for the sake of players getting paid. They have a lot invested in this and I am sure they will want something for their trouble. This is a time where I hope I am completely wrong. I will be happy to admit I was wrong when players are discussing cashing their checks from Full Tilt Poker.


Again, we don't claim to have all the answers -- or even have full confidence in our projections -- but the fact our projections are not *that* far off from each other indicates they are some decent consensus numbers. Frankly, its impossible to know whats going on without being involved in the Tapie/Full Tilt discussions but hopefully we have shared some information for you to ponder when considering how this may play out.

So, what are your odds on these events taking place? Are we right or way off base? We'd love to hear from you.

*Please note the views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the writers and not necessarily those of PAS.